03 Dec San Juan Mountains Weather Forecast~~Tuesday, December 2, 2014
High clouds floating through today from a closed low off the California coast that is spinning warm air into western Colorado and carrying impressive moisture on SW flow.. But with weak storm dynamics (low vorticity/vertical instability), warm temps & mostly orographics for moisture production the snow line will be fairly high in the northern forecast area (9,000′) & the lower valleys seeing a rain/snow mix. The series of 3 storms will stick around through the weekend with various possibilities depending on the model of choice you want to believe.
The three models I follow are not in agreement about anything from timing to amts. of moisture so I’m guessing tonight through Friday the first two storm episodes could bring 4-8″ of snow to the higher elevations of the San Juans on SW facing slopes and less as you move north.
The third storm system probably hitting by Saturday afternoon through Monday is a Pacific trough moving from the Great Basin into western Colorado. The models are in total disagreement on what, where and how much. One model has NW flow bringing a quick shot of snow/rain and the European model puts a closed low over the 4-corners Sunday morning loaded with moisture. I quote my friends at the Grand Junction NWS: “Significant uncertainty remains in the forecast for this coming weekend and the beginning of next week.” Stay Tuned…
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